I’m getting questions about the “coming recession”. It was originally predicted to begin at the end of the Obama presidency. But, it didn’t. Quite the opposite happened. The markets jumped and passed all former ceilings.
My point is, it is an emotional cause, not a fundamental cause. People say bad stuff, freak out and coincidentally, it happens.
What I see coming is not a recession, but a correction.
Since Trump took office, he has worked on things that he feels would boost our economy by returning manufacturing to this country. It has worked mostly, but we’ve exported so much of it, mainly to China. China is not willing to easily let go of the prosperity they’ve received due to our “most favored nation “ policies. The timelines that Trump continues to move is to put China on notice and allow our companies in China and elsewhere to move back to this country.
Our economy is strong and a correction, though unfortunate, must occur to clean out BS companies that pop up during boom times. We become fat and lazy. A correction will get us back to basics and keep our economy healthy in the long run.
I predict about a 10% correction.
When it comes to our real estate values, the market predictably drops every year in the Tampa bay area during the Holidays. Mainly, mid October to mid February. I expect the usual dip, but this time exaggerated a bit. And in February, not pop back up but continue going sideways through the 2020 election as the political hell storm will take our non functioning polarized government to a new low and drag our economy into the political storm. I expect the political victor will be the cause of the outcome. No finger pointing will be acceptable. If Trump wins, he will be the cause of the economy, good or bad at that time. If one of the Democratic runners wins, they will be the cause of the economy, good or bad at that time.
Buy, sell or not sure?
If you are a seller of a higher end home, the market has already slowed. I recommend at this time to ride it out. Selling now, you are selling at a potential low as buyers are bargain shopping. If you are a seller of a lower valued home, sell now, lower interest rates are still driving the market up in this sector.
If you are a buyer of a higher end home, buy the 10% correction. If you are a buyer on the lower than average home price, take advantage of the lower interest rate and buy now. You may see a dip in the value of your home, but the market will return and you will be locked in at the lowest interest rates of our lifetime, which is the real cost of your home.
Buy, sell or rent anywhere in the Tampa bay area? One call, one name and one number to remember.
Curtis Rudolph Realtor®
813.240.6054 cell/text
Charles Rutenberg Realty
* The forecast stated is purely my opinion from experience and studying the behavior of the real estate and stock markets.